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EV Uptake Influencers EVs are currently relatively expensive, so optimistic forecasts assume that prices will decrease with volume and technology improvements, but volume will only increase if prices drop. Chickens and eggs come to mind. Some manufacturers admit to losing money on each car sold in efforts to stimulate the market, but that's not a great business model and tests the patience of investors. Government pressure is another driver, with climate-change goals to achieve and pollution levels to control, and administrations around the world have announced targets to "ban the internal combustion engine" (ICE) by certain dates. The headline impresses, but often they actually mean ban ICE-only vehicles, leaving hybrids in the mix indefinitely. Car manufacturers play with words in the same way, desperately trying not to "strand" their ICE manufacturing assets with promises of 100% electric lineups in their range at a future date when they mean 100% all-electric or hybrid. Oil prices affect future EV uptake with their own dynamics. While prices have been relatively stable recently, geopolitics have dramatic effects, as do any government subsidies. In the US, oil is subsidized to the tune of $4 billion per year, for example. If the price per barrel of crude drops to less than $20 again (inflation adjusted) as it did in 1998 compared with today's figure of around $54, consumers might think again about EV running costs. Currently an EV gets about 43 miles for each electricity-dollar, about one-fourth of the cost of a gas-powered car or SUV. The arguments for mitigating climate change and improving the environment might fade if the EV purchase and running costs don't provide an incentive to swap away from ICEs, even with a reported 200,000 Americans dying each year through lung disease from atmospheric pollution. Range Anxiety A barrier to EV uptake is concern about charging. The original electric vehicles had a range of only 100 miles or so, making them a niche product for a particular type of driver who only ever did short trips, returning to base frequently for a "top up." Things have improved, with a range of around 300 miles now for the better models, but anxiety still remains, with a conception that charging points are scarce. It's certainly a fact that a "stranded" EV out of juice can't just be revived with a spare battery from a passing Good Samaritan. Compared with gas stations, charging "stations" might seem few and far between, but this is just supply and demand; in the US, there are about 270 million cars and 150,000 gas stations with, say, eight pumps – giving about 225 autos per pump. Compare this with about 794,000 EVs and around 48,500 public charging points, giving 16 EVs for each charging station: 14 times better availability! If you factor in office and home charging points, you have close to parity – one charging point for every EV. Clearly the comparison can't be direct, though; a gas tank can be refilled in around 10 minutes, maybe 15 with a comfort break and a can of soda from the convenience store. However, recharging a battery could take hours from a "slow" charger at a highway service stop, so if all charging points are in use, and the next station is miles away, that availability figure isn't much help. With everyone wanting to believe in the future of EVs, we can expect the infrastructure to be built to match one of the predicted uptake scenarios, hopefully the right one. There will be under- or over-shoot though, with the uncertainty in demand with local variabilities to take into account. You can be sure that California will have more charging points installed in the next few years than North Dakota, where the sales of EVs are currently around 40 times less than in the Golden State. Supply Anxiety While range is something to get anxious about, electricity supply should also be up there, at least in the future. At the moment, the load on the grid from EV charging hardly registers, but by 2050, when the predicted 75% of vehicles are looking for a feed every day, the demand could be up to 15% of total US electrical energy draw, or 900TWh (Figure 2). Figure 2: Annual electricity demand by electric LDVs in the US in the BAU scenario and in a scenario with gradual cost declines reaching 40% of the BAU value in 2050. (Source: Energy Innovation) Again, assumptions are made about technology improvements; for example, EVs are currently only about 59 to 62% efficient from battery energy to power at the wheels, so there is some expected improvement. (Compare this with ICEs, with just 17 to 21% conversion efficiency of the chemical energy in gas to motive power.) The figures quoted so far for EV sales and energy consumption relate only to light duty | 5 |

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